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Strategy Update Q4 2007

January 2008

 

The final quarter of 2007 saw more volatility due to the credit and housing problems that are currently bedeviling the economy. Pivot Point's growth and value strategies performed well within expectations, outperforming the relevant benchmarks by a few percentage points for the year.

 

The two core components of our strategies, a focus on reasonable valuations combined with a trend-following component, helped us avoid some of the worst performing sectors and find a few attractive opportunities to boost returns.

 

Our strategies are designed to adapt as the situation changes. Of course any stock portfolio is bound to follow the general direction of a suitable benchmark, but our disciplined approach can help mitigate some of the drawdowns. In the past systematic strategies like ours have generated attractive long-term performance to adequately compensate investors for staying the course through the inevitable rough spots that hit our economy from time to time. So far the current economic situation does not appear to be very different from other economic difficulties in the past.

Performance

Please follow the links under 'strategies' on the left to view monthly returns and a comparison to an appropriate benchmark. Click here for important disclosures on how the returns were calculated.

Conservative Value (NEW)

The Conservative Value combines the stock selection principles of Dynamic Value with the ranking technology of Conservative Growth. The track record for this strategy starts in February 2007.

 

From inception through December this strategy returned 8.85% compared with an almost 12% decline in the Russell 2000 Value index. While such strong outperformance is certainly welcome, especially in these volatile times, we caution readers that we expect this strategy to add one or two percentage points to the benchmark return on average. The current level of outperformance is unsustainable for extended periods of time.

 

Current Holdings

Ticker Name Shares Price Value Sector Exposure
BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc 3781  $    12.50  $          47,262.50 BM 17.5%
EMN Eastman Chemical Co 961  $    61.09  $          58,707.49 BM  
MEOH Methanex Corp 1732  $    27.60  $          47,803.20 BM  
OMG OM Group Inc 1212  $    57.54  $          69,738.48 BM  
RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co 1156  $    54.20  $          62,655.20 BM  
SCHN Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc 902  $    69.13  $          62,355.26 BM  
STLD Steel Dynamics Inc 1294  $    59.57  $          77,083.58 BM  
SXT Sensient Technologies Corp 1795  $    28.28  $          50,762.60 BM  
TX Ternium SA 1478  $    40.11  $          59,282.58 BM  
VZ Verizon Communications Inc 1427  $    43.69  $          62,345.63 C 2.0%
BWA BorgWarner Inc 1320  $    48.41  $          63,901.20 CC 9.1%
JAKK Jakks Pacific Inc 2351  $    23.61  $          55,507.11 CC  
RUSHA Rush Enterprises Inc 3745  $    18.18  $          68,084.10 CC  
TRW TRW Automotive Holdings Corp 2107  $    20.90  $          44,036.30 CC  
UAUA UAL Corp 1338  $    35.66  $          47,713.08 CC  
AET Aetna Inc 1173  $    57.73  $          67,717.29 CS 14.7%
AMSG Amsurg Corp 1984  $    27.06  $          53,687.04 CS  
EMS Emergency Medical Services Corp 2110  $    29.28  $          61,780.80 CS  
FDP Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc 2060  $    33.58  $          69,174.80 CS  
KND Kindred Healthcare Inc 2162  $    24.98  $          54,006.76 CS  
MGLN Magellan Health Services Inc 1155  $    46.63  $          53,857.65 CS  
MOH Molina Healthcare Inc 1361  $    38.70  $          52,670.70 CS  
URI United Rentals Inc 1940  $    18.36  $          35,618.40 CS  
COP ConocoPhillips 759  $    88.30  $          67,019.70 E 15.4%
CVX Chevron Corp 705  $    93.33  $          65,797.65 E  
DK Delek US Holdings Inc 2688  $    20.23  $          54,378.24 E  
HES Hess Corp 964  $  100.86  $          97,229.04 E  
MRO Marathon Oil Corp 1081  $    60.86  $          65,789.66 E  
TSO Tesoro Corp 1222  $    47.70  $          58,289.40 E  
VLO Valero Energy Corp 891  $    70.03  $          62,396.73 E  
MLAN Midland Co/The 1027  $    64.69  $          66,436.63 F 13.9%
PRE PartnerRe Ltd 806  $    82.53  $          66,519.18 F  
PTP Platinum Underwriters Holdings Ltd 1754  $    35.56  $          62,372.24 F  
RJF Raymond James Financial Inc 1472  $    32.66  $          48,075.52 F  
TRH Transatlantic Holdings Inc 890  $    72.67  $          64,676.30 F  
UAM Universal American Corp 2217  $    25.59  $          56,733.03 F  
UNM Unum Group 2560  $    23.79  $          60,902.40 F  
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc 1130  $    54.22  $          61,268.60 I 19.0%
AG AGCO Corp 1230  $    67.98  $          83,615.40 I  
ATR Aptargroup Inc 1526  $    40.91  $          62,428.66 I  
AVT Avnet Inc 1533  $    34.97  $          53,609.01 I  
CIR CIRCOR International Inc 1346  $    46.36  $          62,400.56 I  
CMC Commercial Metals Co 1920  $    29.45  $          56,544.00 I  
CMCO Columbus McKinnon Corp/NY 1638  $    32.62  $          53,431.56 I  
CNH CNH Global NV 1099  $    65.82  $          72,336.18 I